Average spot rates on major front-haul trades from the Far East increased sharply in October, but shippers preparing for 2026 contract negotiations should not panic, according to a new analysis from Xeneta.
Xeneta data shows that spot rates from Far East to US West Coast and US East Coast jumped 38% and 23% respectively since October 1, reaching $2,138 per FEU and $3,038 per FEU. On routes to North Europe and Mediterranean, rates climbed 18% and 9% to $1,968 per FEU and $2,338 per FEU.
Despite these increases, the spread between spot and long-term contract rates suggests shippers maintain negotiating power. “Even after the mid-October increase, average spot rates still sit USD 200 per FEU below the average long term rate” on the Far East to North Europe route, according to Xeneta’s Emily Stausbøll. “Put simply, why would a shipper lock into long term rates that are higher than short term rates?”
The rate increases may be partly attributed to carrier capacity management. October saw “the lowest deployed capacity on the trade into the US West Coast since the aftermath of Liberation Day on 1 April when demand fell dramatically due to Trump’s sweeping tariffs,” notes Stausbøll. The timing is also suspect—in the past two years, spot rates from Far East to North Europe have increased on November 1 following months of decline, “at a time when volumes traditionally fall during October and November.”
Year-over-year comparisons remain favorable for shippers. Average spot rates from Far East to North Europe are down 41% compared to one year ago, while long-term rates are down 24%. From Far East to US West Coast, spot rates dropped 60% and long-term rates fell 42%.
The Xeneta Ocean Outlook 2026 forecasts “overall lower long term and short term rates next year as overcapacity continues to plague carriers.” With the global container fleet expected to grow 3.6% in 2026 against demand growth of only 3%, carriers will likely continue offering incentives to secure volumes.
Recent historical patterns support this outlook. Long-term rates beginning in January 2025 “came in at the same level as long term rates in Q4 2024,” despite Q4 spot rate increases. “Carriers were incentivizing shippers to enter longer contracts because rates were expected to continue to decline during 2025 against a backdrop of overcapacity,” Stausbøll concludes.
