Drewry’s World Container Index decreased 4% to $2,250 per 40ft container this week, marking the tenth consecutive week of decline as the market continues to stabilize following a period of high volatility.
The market turbulence began after US tariffs were announced in April, which triggered rate surges from May through early June. Subsequently, rates saw a heavy decline until mid-July, when the downward trend began to lose momentum.
Transpacific routes experienced notable decreases this week, with Shanghai–Los Angeles rates falling 3% to $2,412/FEU and Shanghai–New York rates dropping 5% to $3,463/FEU. According to Drewry, the accelerated purchasing phase by US retailers that created an early peak season has concluded, with retailers now scaling back procurement in response to a slowing US economy and increased tariff costs.
Asia–Europe trade lanes also saw declines, with Shanghai–Rotterdam rates falling 6% to $2,973/FEU and Shanghai–Genoa rates decreasing 3% to $2,978/FEU. Despite healthy demand and port delays in Europe, growing vessel capacity surplus continues to push rates downward in this corridor.
Looking ahead, Drewry’s Container Forecaster anticipates a weakening supply-demand balance in the second half of 2025, which will likely cause further spot rate contraction. The timing and volatility of future rate changes will depend significantly on potential new Trump tariffs and capacity adjustments related to US penalties on Chinese vessels.
The broader impact of tariff policies is already visible in cargo volumes. According to the National Retail Federation’s Global Port Tracker report, import cargo volume at major U.S. container ports is expected to end 2025 5.6% below 2024’s volume.
“Tariffs are beginning to drive up consumer prices, and fewer imports will eventually mean fewer goods on store shelves,” warned NRF Vice President Jonathan Gold. “Small businesses especially are grappling with the ability to stay in business. We need binding trade agreements that open markets by lowering tariffs, not raising them.”
This uncertain trade environment has created disruptions across global shipping networks. Ben Hackett, Founder of Hackett Associates, described the situation as a “hither-and-thither approach of on-again, off-again tariffs” causing confusion for importers, exporters, and consumers alike.
The effects of these policies can be seen in recent port activity. While U.S. ports handled 1.96 million TEU in June (down 8.4% year-over-year), July volumes surged to a projected 2.3 million TEU as retailers accelerated imports ahead of August tariffs.
The remainder of 2025 is forecast to see significant volume declines, with November expected to hit 1.71 million TEU—the lowest total since April 2023.
