US President Donald Trump may have just said the quiet part out loud, answering analyst questions about the motivation behind OPEC’s decision to unwind its production cuts more than anticipated at a time when oil prices are already low.
“We’re in a good position to settle with Russia as oil prices are down,” President Donald Trump said on Monday, May 5, referring to ongoing negotiations related to the war in Ukraine.
The comment came just days after OPEC shocked markets by announcing it would unwind production cuts for June—three times more than most analysts had forecast. The move tanked already low oil prices and left traders scratching their heads over the motivations behind such a move.
Now, some observers are connecting the dots: a quota hike makes more sense if it’s part of a backroom maneuver orchestrated by Trump to squeeze Moscow by hammering oil revenues. If true, the pain wouldn’t stop at the Kremlin’s doorstep—lower prices hit all producers, including OPEC members themselves and even US supermajors.
Trump has repeatedly argued that slashing Russia’s oil cash flow is the fastest way to end the Ukraine war. By leaning on Riyadh to boost production—despite already soft prices—some may see this as Washington’s attempt to cut off the Kremlin’s primary funding stream at the source.
Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, has insisted its actions are grounded in market fundamentals: just another swing of the supply-demand pendulum. But history suggests otherwise.
In 2020, Russia refused to join deeper OPEC cuts. Saudi Arabia then opened the taps in retaliation, sparking a brutal price war. Crude crashed by nearly 70%, briefly plunging WTI into negative territory. It was a not-so-subtle reminder that Riyadh is more than willing to weaponize oil when geopolitics demand it—and if the Trump administration is calling plays from that same playbook, Russia may find itself once again caught in the crosshairs.
