Spot rates across all the major east-west deepsea trades continued their downward descent this week, although it has become increasingly clear that widespread blanked sailings on the transpacific trade managed to stave off a complete crash.
Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) this week saw a week-on-week decline of just 1% on its Shanghai-Los Angeles leg, to finish at $2,590 per 40ft, while the Shanghai-New York leg lost 3%, to end at $3,500 per 40ft.
Forwarders on the trade told The Loadstar the April general rate increases (GRIs) introduced by carriers had partly held, only gently declining by around $300 per 40ft, “if you ignore the smaller carriers which have dropped down to the $1,550-$1,600 range on spot ex-China”.
“The tremendous number of blanked sailings on transpacific eastbound have done what the carriers hoped – kept rates from completely falling out,” one forwarder said.
However, forwarders also noted that “the big question mark” was now around the GRIs and PSSs announced for this month, and whether they will stick or erode.
“I think these have been, more or less, optimistically announced in case tariffs go away, or volumes from South-east Asia are quite high. If nothing changes, we expect these either not come into effect, or be eroded,” one said.
The WCI-recorded declines on the Asia-Europe trades were slightly more pronounced. The Shanghai-Rotterdam leg was down 5% week on week, to end at $2,202 per 40ft, while the Shanghai-Genoa route was down 4%, to $2,889 per 40ft.
This marks the third consecutive week of Asia-Europe pricing decline, and anecdotal reports confirm that carriers are continuing to offer below-market spot rate discounts to win cargo; Maersk said to be among the most aggressive, with rates “as low as $1,400-$1,450 available in the market on their vessels”, and others offering rates in the $1,550-$1,650 per 40ft range, while the top end is said to be “closer to $1,750-$1,850?.
Meanwhile the number of announced blanked sailings is increasing, and the eeSea liner database noted this week that MSC appeared to have closed its ’embattled standalone” Asia-Mediterranean Phoenix service – “effectively discontinued”, noted an eeSea analysis, confirming the service no longer appears on the carrier’s point-to-point or vessel voyage searches.
“The suspension follows weeks of erratic scheduling adjustments, and casts further doubt on the viability of MSC’s much-touted replacement for the former 2M Adriatic MED loop,” it added. eeSea also noted that a number of the vessels assigned to the service had either been sent to dry dock or reassigned to other services.
And it would appear that removal of the service will be unlikely to immediately affect short-term rates.
“The Phoenix service has been a moving target since its inception, and the lack of vessel commitments, coupled with perpetual start-date revisions, suggests MSC never fully operationalised this loop,” the eeSea analysis explained.
“Nonetheless, this does not rule out a potential revival of the service should market conditions improve.”
