Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz may climb over the next week to 25% of the pre-war total of January and February, from 10% since the Iran war started, after the US and Iran agreed a conditional ceasefire, according to an April 8 report by S&P Global Commodities at Sea(opens in a new tab).
Most of the roughly 500 oil, chemical, products and LPG ships currently inside the Strait of Hormuz should be able to exit the strait by April 24, or the end of the second week, according to the report. Traffic may reach 50% of pre-war levels by April 22, two weeks from now, according to the report.
“This also assumes that priority will be given to outbound exits, with energy-related vessels at the front of the queue,” it said. “If traffic remains at 10% of pre-war levels for the foreseeable future, it will take over a month for the majority of the vessels to exit, with vessels clearing by May 10.” Ships may have additional requirements, such as inspections or naval escorts, during the ceasefire, which could limit traffic even more, CAS said.
“Near-term indicators of improving sentiment to watch for will include the first exit of laden LNG tankers since the war began, as well as a sustained increase in inbound transits by non-Iranian-linked vessels into the Middle East Gulf.”
A total of 12 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on April 7, up from nine the previous day, according to the CAS report. The ships were four bulk carriers, three chemical/product tankers, three LPG carriers and two container ships, with half of them heading into the Persian Gulf and the other half heading out, according to the report. All nine ships that used the Hormuz on April 6 were heading outbound, it said.
Recent successful transits have largely used a northern exit pathway closer to Iran, between Qeshm and Larak islands, CAS said.
